Perspectives, built on the facts.
Carl Muhlstein's views on Los Angeles real estate, drawn from his interviews, panels, and posts: studios and entertainment, capital markets, office and conversions, advanced manufacturing, and the policy that shapes them.
Studios & Entertainment
Studios & Entertainment →Consolidation is already changing how studio space gets used. The bigger test for landlords may come in about five years, if new stages open into a weaker production market.
Studio economics have reset. A new facility no longer guarantees tenants, and productions favor landlords with a stake in them.
Falling studio-lot values are sending owners to the Assessor with Prop 8 appeals, a hit to County revenue on top of lost production jobs.
Capital Markets
Rates, values, and the resetBuying below replacement cost no longer protects a deal when record debt costs are resetting commercial real estate.
The office bust is moving from empty towers to the capital stack, and the losses are landing on investors.
The city's transfer tax on larger sales has made lenders and developers wary of building in Los Angeles.
Office, Conversions & Public Land
What vacant space can becomeOffice tenants are becoming buyers. L.A. County's purchase of the Gas Company Tower was a sound deal next to the cost and time of building new.
Office-to-residential conversions need public-private work to clear the zoning barriers in their way.
The 30-plus-acre federal site at 11000 Wilshire could hold 2,000 to 3,000 homes, and be worth $500 million to more than $1 billion if it were planned and entitled.
Los Angeles entitles projects looking backward. Expect hotel-to-residential conversions after 2028.
Advanced Manufacturing & Infill
Advanced Manufacturing →After a minor South Bay quake: hard-tech occupiers should investigate liquefaction, fault lines, and PML ratings before they sign, not after.
Litigation aside, the real question is how long it takes to rebuild critical infill cold-storage capacity once it is lost.
Los Angeles, the Long View
Where the region is headingHow L.A. brokerage has changed: whether technology really helps young brokers, Downtown's slide as the region's business center, and what a Paramount–Warner Bros. combination could mean.
A city of downtowns may be getting another: the Rams' plan for a 52-acre village and headquarters as a new center for the San Fernando Valley.
Paraphrased from Carl's published comments; follow each link for the original.
For interviews, podcasts, and press coverage, see Media.
Want Carl's read on your submarket?Or email Carl directly at carl@muhlsteincre.com
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